2019 Jul 20 - Brexit and the Grieve Amendment

We'll talk about some Brexit news in a moment but first I guess it's worth mentioning that it's 50 years this weekend since man walked on the moon and as Michael Collins remained alone flying overhead in the orbiter, we was one of the only the people in history to be both sad and both over the moon at the same time. Unfortunately though for the folks like you and me the prospect of commercial flights to the moon still remain as far in the future as the idea of a supposedly conservative government passing a budget surplus. To this very day the world still remains divided between countries that have sent a man to the moon, and countries that use the metric system.

Oh well, talking of space and the stars. The Bear, the Big Dipper, The Plough, are also all names of pubs in which you might find Nigel Farage and a number of senior Conservatives plotting, following this week's shenanigans in the House of Commons. For a quick summary, Boris Johnson has previously hinted at proroguing parliament to force a No Deal Brexit through. That would work by ending the parliamentary session early come September, causing a few weeks to be spent waiting for the Queen to officially open the new session and preventing any last minute attempt in October to prevent Britain leaving the EU on the 31st. At this stage it wouldn't surprise me if I saw Ken Clarke filling up the PMs car with diesel if it meant it could delay proceedings for an afternoon while he nips down the garage.

The Grieve amendment, passed this week, added a legal requirement for the parliament to sit for 5 days every 2 weeks on the alleged basis of discussing the northern Ireland assembly and budget. Theresa May expressed the sort of emotion you'd normally me to show if I heard that someone had bought some new socks while they were out. Fans of history will remember that King Charles I decided to mess around with closing parliament and it didn't end up well for him

The whole things leaves two possibilities: Option 1) Mrs Johnson (if he does become PM) continues to have parliament remain open and fights for a deal in such a confrontational manner that the EU tell Britain to make like a tree and leave. Option 2) Convince MPs to back an election and then get a pro-Brexit majority by relying on enough remain MPs, Labour and Conservative alike, losing their seats to Nigel Farage's Brexit party, possibly unchallenged by the Conservatives in some areas.

I suspect the first option is the more likely of the two, though like a man in an orthopaedic shoe, perhaps I'll stand corrected.
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