2019 Apr 27 - Nigel is back for the European Elections

If scientists ever develop a beer that comes in capsule form, then you could say that it was a "bitter pill to swallow" Apologies, that was dreadful, but something that is going to be a bitter pill to swallow for establishment politicians is that there's some elections coming down the line. In the past you'd normally get 2 parties, both of whom were variations on the same, like having to choose between water and molten ice. However, in both Europe and the US the last year or so has seen the emergence of parties and candidates that look set to do well, even if in past year's they'd have received fewer votes than if Botswana offered to host the Winter Olympics.

All across Europe there has been a resurgence in smaller nationalist parties and the first demonstration of this will be this weekend where Spain will have it's 3rd election in 4 years. Possibly a preview of what Theresa May's upcoming future of never-ending leadership challenges will look like. In truth however, it's more a preview of next month's European elections when traditionally a low turnout combined with a solid vote from the main parties' bases has guaranteed a stitch up and a return to business as usual. This was how Nick Clegg became a member of the European Parliament back in the 90s, when he won a seat after a few dozen Liberal Democrat activists and a stray dog turned up to vote that evening.

This week however saw not only the emergence of Nigel Farage's Brexit party, it also saw it go straight to the top in the opinion polls with many local Conservative Party activists switching allegiance faster than a sports commentator who, having realised that the previously "British" athlete is going to lose, reverts back to describing them as "Scottish" The Scotland connection really is the most amazing part in all of this really: The rise of the SNP in Scotland following the Independence referendum saw the utter collapse of the Labour Party in areas where votes used to be weighed rather than counted, and yet now the Conservative Party is surprised to see the rise of a mainstream Brexit party challenging it, somehow also geared around a singular issue. No concept of cause and affect, no learning from history. The only thing that comes close in political short-sightedness is the SNPs new apparent policy that referendums don't have to be binding, that's one that they may live to regret in another decade or so when Scotland one day votes in favour of independence and Tony Blair once more comes out of the woodwork to lecture BBC listeners about how people earning less than 100k/year are too racist and ill-informed to know what's best for them.

Of course Theresa could kill the Brexit party dead in the water by actually just leaving the EU without a deal, but that would be like when you promise to give up wine on December the 31st - easier said than done. And Theresa May might not like wine quite as much as Jean Claude Juncker does but she does like the EU just as much.
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